Immigration Expert: Northern Border Crackdown May Move Migrant Routes to Montana
"World’s Longest Undefended Border"
Andrew Arthur, resident fellow in law and policy for the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), said that if there is an increase of migrants heading for the northern border, “migrant activity” may move west due to routes being shut down in the northeast.
“Anybody that comes through those heavily traveled routes between upstate New York and Vermont and Montreal, the Canadians are going to crack down on that. And so what I anticipate you will see then is more of that migrant activity moving west,” Arthur said.
Arthur added that a potential route could be from Montana into Calgary or Regina.
Arthur wrote for the CIS that Canada is “bracing for a surge of third-world migrants.”
“Expect the ‘world’s longest undefended border’ to soon be a little more defended, as a migrant surge would likely imperil the electoral prospects of current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party,” Arthur wrote in November.
On Monday, Jan. 6, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned as Canada’s prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party.
“I intend to resign as party leader, as prime minister, after the party selects its next leader through a robust, nationwide, competitive process,” Trudeau said.
Even with Canada bracing for this migrant surge, Arthur said it may not come to pass because all of this is simply based on prior trends, and northbound Canadian traffic has never really been one of those things that America has dealt with. Still, America knows the Canadians are concerned about it.
As of Jan. 6, the Conservative Party with Pierre Poilievre is on track to beat the Liberal Party, according to the CBC News. The next election of Canada’s prime minister will occur in October 2025.
He told The Chronicles that crossing the northern border is the only way to get into Canada illegally. Arthur said this because Canada only borders one country: America, and its major airline, Air Canada, is partially owned by the government, which allows it to control individuals coming into the country.
Arthur said this hasn’t been a big issue in the past because most people were not trying to sneak out of America to get to Canada. However, the immigration expert said he anticipates “seeing individuals who are making plans to go north now” if there is an immigration crackdown from the Trump administration.
Under the Safe Third Country Agreement, Canadians can crack down on anybody who comes through heavily traveled routes between America and Canada.
Arthur said this agreement says that if people enter Canada illegally, it can send them back to America. He added that if someone tried to make an asylum claim in Canada, the country could tell that individual to make it in America.
According to Arthur, the United States can do the same thing to Canada.
The agreement only applied to “legal points of entry.” However, Arthur said that in 2023, the agreement changed to include “people crossing illegally into Canada.”
To fight back, the immigration expert said border states like Montana can take action against drug cartels. He added that they can work closely with the federal government.
He also mentioned the 287 G agreement, which allows local and state law enforcement to perform certain immigration duties, such as holding unlawfully present people for ICE.
This agreement allows states to partner with ICE for specially trained law enforcement to perform those “very introductory immigration activities.”
Arthur said the Biden administration has handled the northern border “extremely poorly.”
The number of illegal aliens apprehended in 2022 was 2,238, and then two years later, it increased to 23,271, according to Arthur.
Furthermore, encounters with illegal immigrants at the northern border from Fiscal Year 2022 to Fiscal Year 2024 increased by 89,294. Fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30th of the following year.
“We call it the world’s largest undefended border for a reason, and unfortunately, that has negative implications,” he said.
The United States-Canada border is 5,525 miles long, and only 2,200 Border Patrol agents work there.
“We were pulling agents off the line in the northern border and sending them south, which just left the northern border even more undefended,” he said.
Arthur predicted that when President-elect Donald Trump takes office, he will “put a heavy squeeze on the Canadians to lock down their border.”
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Zachery Schmidt is the founder of The Montana Chronicles. If you have any tips, please send them to montanachronicles@proton.me.